At a Glance
- Tasks: Create political reports and forecasts based on real-time analysis and evidence.
- Company: Join a forward-thinking team focused on political and financial insights.
- Benefits: Fully remote work, competitive pay, and opportunities for professional growth.
- Other info: Ideal for experienced analysts looking to shape the future of political risk assessment.
- Why this job: Make impactful decisions in a dynamic political landscape while working from anywhere.
- Qualifications: 8+ years in political forecasting or related fields with strong analytical skills.
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
What you will do:
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
Who we are looking for:
- A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary.
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.
- Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU.
- Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit:
- Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Point-in-time discipline:
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Political Risk Expert – Remote in Toronto employer: Mercor
As a Political Risk Expert at our fully remote company, you will join a dynamic team dedicated to producing high-quality political analysis that informs AI models. We foster a collaborative work culture that values expert insights and encourages continuous learning, providing ample opportunities for professional growth in the fast-evolving field of political forecasting. Enjoy the flexibility of remote work while contributing to impactful projects that shape the understanding of political and financial landscapes.
